2027: APC Leads PDP in Kwara Governorship, Senatorial Polls – Survey
The All Progressives Congress (APC) leads the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the race for the Kwara State governorship and all three senatorial seats ahead of the 2027 general elections, according to a new opinion poll by NU Northstar Research.
The survey, conducted across the state’s 16 local government areas and 193 wards, projects a commanding lead for the APC governorship candidate, Salihu Yakubu Danladi, over his PDP counterpart, Bolakale Kawu.
Among voters who have indicated a voting preference, Danladi enjoys 63 per cent support against Kawu’s 34 per cent, suggesting a substantial advantage for the APC candidate as the political contest gathers momentum.
The findings, signed by NU Northstar’s Head of Research, Mr Ebuka Iloh, were based on interviews with 30,000 registered voters conducted between September 2 and October 20, 2026.
The poll also places APC candidates ahead of their PDP rivals in Kwara Central, Kwara South and Kwara North, pointing to the ruling party’s growing electoral advantage across the state.
Among the entire electorate surveyed, Danladi secured 43 per cent support, compared with Kawu’s 24 per cent. However, 31 per cent remained undecided or declined to disclose their preferred candidate. Zakari Mohammed of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) garnered one per cent, while Ridwan Apaokagi of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) recorded less than one per cent.
A breakdown of the governorship race showed Danladi leading in all three senatorial districts and the 16 local government areas.
His strongest performance was recorded in Kwara North, where he secured 71 per cent against Kawu’s 26 per cent among decided voters. In Kwara Central, the APC candidate polled 56 per cent, while his PDP rival managed 41 per cent.
The contest appeared relatively tighter in Ilorin West, Kawu’s home local government, where Danladi led by 51 per cent to 46 per cent.
Despite the APC candidate’s statewide advantage, the research identified 58 wards as too close to call, while Danladi maintained clear leads in 135 wards.
The findings, however, suggest that the final shape of the governorship contest could depend significantly on how undecided voters eventually align.
Kwara South has the highest concentration of voters yet to decide, with 43 per cent undecided. The figures stood at 28 per cent in Kwara Central and 24 per cent in Kwara North.
Significantly, all six local government areas where undecided voters exceeded 40 per cent were located in Kwara South, making the district a potentially decisive battleground in the election.
Young voters between 18 and 29 years also emerged as a critical electoral bloc, with 37 per cent still undecided.
The senatorial contests mirrored the governorship trend, with APC candidates enjoying considerable leads over their PDP opponents in the three districts.
In Kwara Central, APC candidate and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq led the PDP candidate and incumbent senator, Saliu Mustapha, by 62 per cent to 33 per cent among decided voters.
In Kwara South, Olalekan Adewoye of the APC polled 60 per cent against 36 per cent for the PDP candidate, Saheed Popoola.
Similarly, Mahmud Umar Muhammad of the APC maintained a 65 per cent to 31 per cent advantage over Kolo Baba Jiya of the PDP in Kwara North.
