An Urgent Memo to the ALL PROGRESSIVES CONGRESS Hierarchy: The Ogunesan Ticket is a Strategic Landmine

We address you not as adversaries but as concerned stakeholders who desire a resounding victory for our great party in 2027. However, loyalty must be tempered with truth, and we are compelled to speak plainly: the impending ratification of Mrs. Hannah Ogunesan, as the APC Senatorial candidate for Oyo North, is not merely a misstep—it is an act of political self-sabotage that will hand the opposition a landslide victory on a silver platter.

We are not here to vilify; we are here to prevent a catastrophe. Should the party proceed with this ticket, the consequences will be swift, brutal, and absolute. Here is the unpalatable reality your strategists may be ignoring.

1. The “Ajimobi Excess” Stigma is Non-Negotiable

In Oyo politics, the legacy of the Ajimobi administration is a complex ledger of achievements and grievances. Mrs. Ogunesan was not a marginal player; she was a central figure whose use of authority alienated the very party stalwarts we now need to mobilize. The memories of her high-handedness are not fading; they are festering.

By presenting her as our standard-bearer, you are asking the party’s grassroots to forget their wounds. They will not. Instead, they will exact quiet revenge through the “lepa” system—remaining in the party physically but withdrawing their boots on the ground. In a game decided by voter turnout, this apathy is a death sentence.

2. The Family Feud: A Leadership Litmus Test Failed

It is an open scandal that the political calculations of Mrs. Ogunesan left her own immediate brother as a sworn political enemy. If a politician cannot forge compromise and reconciliation within the four walls of her own home, how can she be entrusted to unite the diverse, sometimes volatile, interests of 13 Local Governments?

The opposition will not let this slide. They will frame her as a leader who devours her own kin for power. This narrative of ruthlessness will stick because it is rooted in truth and it will repel moderate voters who value integrity and restraint.

3. The Cultural & Religious Miscalculation

Oyo North is a deeply traditional, religiously conscious constituency. The current socio-political tide does not favour a female senator for this zone at this time. This is not a commentary on gender equality but a stark reality of the electorate’s readiness.

To force this issue is to pick a fight with the traditional institutions and religious bodies that direct the “block votes” in the region. You will lose the elders’ blessings, and without their endorsement, you lose the villages. It is that simple.

4. The EFCC Shadow: A Sword Hanging Over the Campaign

We can not ignore the elephant in the room. The EFCC investigation into Mrs. Ogunesan’s tenure culminating in the return of diverted funds to the state treasury is a liability that will be exploited mercilessly by APM and the Labour Party (LP).

The opposition has already scripted their ads: an accused administrator being sent to the Senate to oversee public funds. In an era of “Renewed Hope” and anti-corruption rhetoric, we will appear as hypocrites of the highest order. The pending EFCC case is not a minor detail; it is a weapon our enemies will use to destroy our credibility on the national stage.


The Domino Effect: How We Lose the State

You can not win Oyo State without Oyo North. It is our electoral fortress. Mrs. Ogunesan’s candidacy ensures the following chain reaction:

1. Internal Sabotage: Grassroots mobilizers will sit on their hands.
2. Loss of Senatorial Seat: The APM coalition will capitalize on the dysfunction and claim the seat.
3. Top-of-Ticket Collapse: Without the massive “block votes” from Oyo North to offset the deficits in the South and Central districts, the APC presidential and gubernatorial candidates will suffer fatal deficits. We will lose the state—period.


We implore the party leadership to exercise the courage of strategic realism. This is not a war on ambition; it is a warning against suicide. The APC must field a candidate who is:

· Unifying: Without a record of alienating party elders.
· Culturally Attuned: Reflecting the sociological realities of the Oyo North district.
· Clean: Free from the weight of ongoing EFCC scrutiny.

Our Final Word

We warn you bluntly: The Ogunesan project is a poisoned chalice. If you drink from it, you will not simply lose Oyo North; you will lose the presidential votes in the state, the gubernatorial race, and your national reputation.

The die is cast. The warning is clear. If the party ignores this counsel, it does so at its own peril. On election night, we ask that you remember this letter as the returns begin to trickle in—and we watch Oyo State slip through your fingers.

We have spoken the truth. The rest is in your hands.


Oyo State Justice Forum